SALT LAKE CITY, UT – FEBRUARY 25: Head coach Quin Snyder of the Utah Jazz talks to Joe Ingles #2 and Dante Exum #11 of the Utah Jazz during the game against the Los Angeles Lakers at EnergySolutions Arena on February 25, 2015 in Salt Lake City, Utah. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2015 NBAE (Photo by Melissa Majchrzak/NBAE via Getty Images)
After years of being in the rebuilding phase, the Utah Jazz are poised to be contenders for this year’s NBA championship. But how long will they last as a contending and playoff team?
In case you haven’t heard, the Utah Jazz are in win-now mode. Gone are the days of playing the young guys in hopes of developing star potential. In hindsight, Utah only kept two of the players they drafted from the rebuilding and “not skipping steps” phase.
There is no more waiting for Enes Kanter to develop good defensive habits. There is no more need to grimace every time Trey Burke takes a bad shot. No more cautious optimism with the streaky Rodney Hood, and no more wondering if Gordon Hayward can ever be the alpha dog on a championship team. The Jazz have retained none of those guys from the rebuild except Rudy Gobert, Joe Ingles and Dante Exum.
As a natural consequence of finishing the rebuild, they field a much older roster than in years past. Mike Conley just turned 32 years old and is joined in the 30-and-over club by his teammates Bojan Bogdanovic, Joe Ingles, Jeff Green and Ed Davis.
In addition to this, the Jazz’s draft picks in the next few years will likely be lower. Instead of picking in the middle of the first and second round, Jazz Nation will have to get accustomed to picking late if their team goes where they want to go. While this is definitely the best team the Jazz have had on paper this decade, it has sacrificed some young talent in order to get there.
What is the greater value they hope to get from this sacrifice? A championship. The Utah Jazz now have a small window of contention where they hope to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy at least once, if not multiple times.
We will analyze components that affect how long (or short) the championship window will be open for the Utah Jazz. Let’s start with the most obvious one being how long the current players can perform at a championship level:
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<p>— Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) <a href=https://thejnotes.com/2019/10/27/projecting-utah-jazz-championship-window-part/"https://twitter.com/utahjazz/status/1187203899234504704?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%22>October 24, 2019</a></p></blockquote>
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<p>Jeff Green is 33 years old and has only been offered the veterans minimum deal in free agency <a href=https://thejnotes.com/2019/10/27/projecting-utah-jazz-championship-window-part/"https://twitter.com/DwyaneWade/status/1146256817258926082?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1146256817258926082&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fheatnation.com%2Fmedia%2Fdwyane-wade-vents-jeff-green-significant-contract%2F%22 target="_blank" rel="noopener">despite deserving better</a>. Because he has consistently outplayed his contract value, I’m not sure Green will stay with the Jazz beyond this season. Assuming Uncle Jeff puts together a nice year on a contending team like the Jazz, this could be his last chance to get a mid-level deal.</p>
<p>However, he specifically chose to sign with the Utah Jazz to be teammates with Mike Conley and compete for a championship, so hopefully he is back with a reasonable contract next season. He still has decent scoring chops and good athleticism when carefully timed, and I think he still has two to three years left in the tank.</p>
<p>Ed Davis is 30 and should be on the tail end of his prime. Since he’s a rebounding specialist I’d bet he declines with age unless he adds a notable scoring or passing repertoire to his game. Not sure how effective he’ll be in three years, or if he’ll even be a Jazzman by then.</p>
<p>Now we will take a look at some of the younger players on the Jazz.</p>
<div class="next-slide slider"> <a class="next-slide-btn" style="background: #00265D" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="next-slide-shortcode" href=https://thejnotes.com/2019/10/27/projecting-utah-jazz-championship-window-part/"#"> <span class="title">Next:</span> Rising and Peaking Jazzmen </a>
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<img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="wp-image-79953 size-full" src=https://thejnotes.com/2019/10/27/projecting-utah-jazz-championship-window-part/"https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/fetch/c_fill,g_auto,f_auto,h_1180,w_1600/https%3A%2F%2Fthejnotes.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fgetty-images%2F2019%2F10%2F1177833187.jpeg" alt="Utah Jazz Championship" width="1600" height="1180" srcset="https://thejnotes.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2019/10/1177833187.jpeg 1600w, https://thejnotes.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2019/10/1177833187-768x566.jpeg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px"><div class="fs-center-img">
<p class="wp-caption-text" style="width:1600px;">SALT LAKE CITY, UT – OCTOBER 23: Donovan Mitchell #45 of the Utah Jazz attempts a dunk over Mike Muscala #33 of the Oklahoma City Thunder during an opening night game at Vivint Smart Home Arena on October 23, 2019 in Salt Lake City, Utah. (Photo by Alex Goodlett/Getty Images)</p>
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<h3>Rising and Peaking Jazzmen</h3>
<p>In theory, Rudy Gobert should be in the heart of his prime at age 27, but because of his long arms he can play above the rim on both sides of the floor without exerting much athleticism. If The Stifle Tower stays healthy, he can maintain his All-NBA caliber play for the next eight-plus years, effectively keeping Utah’s title window open as long as he remains in a Jazz uniform. In a lot of ways, this reminds me of how <a href=https://thejnotes.com/2019/10/27/projecting-utah-jazz-championship-window-part/"https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/duncati01.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener" ref="nofollow">Tim Duncan</a> maintained elite defensive skills even at age 38, earning himself honors on the All-Defensive 2nd Team.</p>
<p>Meanwhile other rim protectors such as <a href=https://thejnotes.com/2019/10/27/projecting-utah-jazz-championship-window-part/"https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/chandty01.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener" ref="nofollow">Tyson Chandler</a> exit their prime before their 34th birthday because they rely on their athleticism to catch lobs and swat shots. In Chandler’s case, injuries took him out of his prime when he was about 33. Let’s hope that the twilight of Gobert’s career plays out more like Tim Duncan’s than Chandler’s.</p>
<p><a href=https://thejnotes.com/2019/10/27/projecting-utah-jazz-championship-window-part/"https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/arenagi01.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener" ref="nofollow">Gilbert Arenas</a>, <a href=https://thejnotes.com/2019/10/27/projecting-utah-jazz-championship-window-part/"https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gordobe01.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener" ref="nofollow">Ben Gordon</a>, <a href=https://thejnotes.com/2019/10/27/projecting-utah-jazz-championship-window-part/"https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/richaja01.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener" ref="nofollow">Jason Richardson</a>, and <a href=https://thejnotes.com/2019/10/27/projecting-utah-jazz-championship-window-part/"https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gordoer01.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener" ref="nofollow">Eric Gordon</a>. What do all these players have in common?</p>
<p>For one they were all exciting guards to watch with electric scoring potential, but none of them were able to fulfill (or sustain) their full potential in the NBA. Between injuries and a lack of dimension to their games, both Gordons and Richardson never lived up to their star potential. Arenas had three consecutive All-Star and All-NBA campaigns in a row, but injuries and off-court troubles robbed him of some more exhilarating years. This guy looked like the second coming of <a href=https://thejnotes.com/2019/10/27/projecting-utah-jazz-championship-window-part/"https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/i/iversal01.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener" ref="nofollow">Allen Iverson</a> the way he could put the ball in the bucket.</p>
<p><a href=https://thejnotes.com/2019/10/27/projecting-utah-jazz-championship-window-part/"https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/mitchdo01.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener" ref="nofollow">Donovan Mitchell</a> is only in his third season, and his game depends heavily on his athleticism. The former slam dunk champion has to develop greater footwork and shooting prowess not only to become a true star, but to extend his prime years into his 30s. Otherwise he puts himself at risk for becoming just a microwave scorer off the bench later in his career.</p>
<p>Fortunately, Mitchell has already been working on other dimensions of his game. This summer he took notable steps towards becoming a better playmaker (led Team USA in assists) and defender (played solid defense in five preseason games). The best-case scenario with Mitchell (assuming he stays a Jazzman) is he keeps Utah’s championship window open for the next decade.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">There's a lot to unpack about the Utah Jazz's season-opening win over OKC, but can we just talk about Donovan Mitchell? <a href=https://thejnotes.com/2019/10/27/projecting-utah-jazz-championship-window-part/"https://twitter.com/hashtag/TakeNote?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%22>#TakeNote</a><a href=https://thejnotes.com/2019/10/27/projecting-utah-jazz-championship-window-part/"https://t.co/ydOQIaSMvm">https://t.co/ydOQIaSMvm
<p>— The J-Notes (@TheJNotes) <a href=https://thejnotes.com/2019/10/27/projecting-utah-jazz-championship-window-part/"https://twitter.com/TheJNotes/status/1187430756156469248?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%22>October 24, 2019</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src=https://thejnotes.com/2019/10/27/projecting-utah-jazz-championship-window-part/"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p></div>
<p><a href=https://thejnotes.com/2019/10/27/projecting-utah-jazz-championship-window-part/"https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/onealro01.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener" ref="nofollow">Royce O’Neale</a> is yet another Jazzman that came into the league as an older rookie at age 25. He plays great defense and doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be effective on offense. Assuming that O’Neale masters his defensive fundamentals and footwork, he can sustain his good defense even as his lateral quickness slows down. <a href=https://thejnotes.com/2019/10/27/projecting-utah-jazz-championship-window-part/"https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/allento01.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener" ref="nofollow">Tony Allen</a> was able to earn a place on the All-Defensive second team at age 35, who’s to say that O’Neale can’t do the same?</p>
<p>Ah, finally… Dante Exum. Everybody already knows what I’m going to say, but I’ll say it anyway.</p>
<p>If you’re still waiting for Exum to develop into an All-Star player then you’re probably wasting your time. The most critical years for a player to develop his potential is ages 19-24, which Exum was unable to fully participate in due to injuries. The good news is that Exum is still an NBA player and has two distinct skills that make him playable: driving to the hole and creating offense, and his excellent perimeter defense.</p>
<p>Assuming he can stay off the injury report, Dante will make a nice role player that gets 20-25 minutes a game, even for a championship team. His ceiling may be lower than we all hoped but he still has a place in this league and on the Jazz roster.</p>
<p>Now on to another critical, but often overlooked element of preserving a title window…</p>
<div class="next-slide slider"> <a class="next-slide-btn" style="background: #00265D" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="next-slide-shortcode" href=https://thejnotes.com/2019/10/27/projecting-utah-jazz-championship-window-part/"#"> <span class="title">Next:</span> Player Development </a>
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<img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="wp-image-79954 size-full" src=https://thejnotes.com/2019/10/27/projecting-utah-jazz-championship-window-part/"https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/fetch/c_fill,g_auto,f_auto,h_1067,w_1600/https%3A%2F%2Fthejnotes.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fgetty-images%2F2019%2F10%2F1176303649.jpeg" alt="Utah Jazz Championship" width="1600" height="1067" srcset="https://thejnotes.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2019/10/1176303649.jpeg 1600w, https://thejnotes.com/wp-content/uploads/getty-images/2019/10/1176303649-768x512.jpeg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px"><div class="fs-center-img">
<p class="wp-caption-text" style="width:1600px;">SALT LAKE CITY, UT – OCTOBER 16: Joe Ingles #2 of the Utah Jazz and teammate Royce O’Neale #23 in action during a preseason game Portland Trail Blazers at Vivint Smart Home Arena on October 16, 2019 in Salt Lake City, Utah. (Photo by Alex Goodlett/Getty Images)</p>
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<h3>Player Development</h3>
<p>Player development and drafting go hand in hand, and the San Antonio Spurs are a prime example of that. The Spurs won five championships between 1999 and 2014, largely in part to getting lucky and drafting franchise cornerstone Tim Duncan 1st overall. But there is more to it than luck for building sustained success.</p>
<p>To complement Duncan, the Spurs hit on their late draft picks, namely Manu Ginobili (57th overall) and <a href=https://thejnotes.com/2019/10/27/projecting-utah-jazz-championship-window-part/"https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/parketo01.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener" ref="nofollow">Tony Parker</a> (28th overall). To get any type of career out of that late of draft picks is a success in and of itself, but the fact that Popovich developed these guys into Hall of Famers is unbelievable.</p>
<p>Parker and Ginobili aren’t the only beneficiaries of the Spurs’ player development system. While <a href=https://thejnotes.com/2019/10/27/projecting-utah-jazz-championship-window-part/"https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/greenda02.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener" ref="nofollow">Danny Green</a> and <a href=https://thejnotes.com/2019/10/27/projecting-utah-jazz-championship-window-part/"https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/millspa02.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener" ref="nofollow">Patty Mills</a> were not technically drafted by the Spurs organization, they both signed with San Antonio very early in their careers. Luckily for them, that might’ve been what saved their careers. Both players were in and out of the D-League before relocating to San Antonio and becoming a key cog in their 2014 championship run.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">In his debut piece for The J-Notes, <a href=https://thejnotes.com/2019/10/27/projecting-utah-jazz-championship-window-part/"https://twitter.com/MarkMilliganJr1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%22>@MarkMilliganJr1 speaks to how good the Utah Jazz are – not just on the court, but off.<a href=https://thejnotes.com/2019/10/27/projecting-utah-jazz-championship-window-part/"https://t.co/0Bc3QbxSlE">https://t.co/0Bc3QbxSlE
<p>— The J-Notes (@TheJNotes) <a href=https://thejnotes.com/2019/10/27/projecting-utah-jazz-championship-window-part/"https://twitter.com/TheJNotes/status/1187079864064413696?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%22>October 23, 2019</a></p></blockquote>
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<p>The Utah Jazz front office is good about continuously scouting out talent that plays in high school, college, overseas and in the G-League (as evidenced by the franchise owning their own G-League affiliate). They’ve hit on a few draft steals of their own, like Mitchell (13th overall), Gobert (27th overall), Rodney Hood (23rd overall), and <a href=https://thejnotes.com/2019/10/27/projecting-utah-jazz-championship-window-part/"https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/millspa01.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener" ref="nofollow">Paul Millsap</a> (47th overall). They’ve also found diamonds in the rough who were originally undrafted prospects, like Royce O’Neale, Joe Ingles and <a href=https://thejnotes.com/2019/10/27/projecting-utah-jazz-championship-window-part/"https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/matthwe02.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener" ref="nofollow">Wesley Matthews</a>.</p>
<p>In order to maintain the championship window, the Jazz have to keep hitting on late draft picks, G-League call ups, and training camp invites. Failure to do so makes for a fragile championship window. Just look at the Lakers and Knicks who relied too heavily on signing marquee free agents. The Lakers are only just now escaping their half-decade of a dumpster fire, and the Knicks are in the middle of their own troubles.</p>
<p>In building up a contender, Dennis Lindsey and Justin Zanik did a great job of not surrendering future draft picks. The only future first round pick the Jazz owe is one to Memphis that likely won’t be conveyed until 2022. The Jazz will get to pick twice in the second round in 2022, 2023, and 2024. The only way Utah gets left out of the draft in the near future is if they miss the playoffs this year, which we all know will not happen barring multiple catastrophic injuries.</p>
<div class="fs-shortcode" data-type="StoryLink" data-theme="dark" data-text="Game Thread: Can the Utah Jazz bounce back after getting LeBron’d?" data-url="https://thejnotes.com/2019/10/26/utah-jazz-rebound-getting-lebrond-sacramento-kings/" data-call-to-action="Next"> <div class="story-link-next"> <a class="story-link-next-btn" style="background: #00265D" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="story-link-next-shortcode" href=https://thejnotes.com/2019/10/27/projecting-utah-jazz-championship-window-part/"https://thejnotes.com/2019/10/26/utah-jazz-rebound-getting-lebrond-sacramento-kings/"> <span class="call_to_action">Next:</span> Game Thread: Can the Utah Jazz bounce back after getting LeBron’d? </a> </div>
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<p>Well, that wraps up part one of this series. So far it appears the Jazz are likely to stay contenders for this season and the next, and as long as Gobert and Mitchell stick around the Jazz can stay relevant in the playoff race. Stay tuned for part two of analyzing how long the Utah Jazz Championship window will be open.</p>
<p><em>All stats courtesy of basketball-reference.com</em></p><!—pageview_candidate—>">