The NBA offseason may not feature NBA games, but it’s no time for solemn reflection for fans of the Utah Jazz or any other team across the Association. Instead, it’s a time for rampant speculation, premature conclusions, and most importantly, wildly arbitrary predictions about individual player’s statistics.
Maybe that’s overly cynical: the predictions don’t have to be arbitrary. In this article, we’ll be looking at the trend in each Utah Jazz projected starter’s numbers over the past several seasons, factoring in their ages, and making an educated guess from there. Of course, every player’s career does not follow the same curve. Some players seem to defy Father Time until the unlikely transitions into the impossible. Others fall off at seemingly a moment’s notice, leaving fans to wonder what happened to the All-Star caliber player they’d grown accustomed to.
The possibilities are endless, and maybe that’s the fun of the offseason. The season itself is when the majority of NBA fans hopes are dashed, while an extremely small minority taste the glory of an NBA championship. The offseason is the time that those hopes are fostered.
Nonetheless, we will not be giving into the temptation of blind optimism here, either. We’ll try to make the most realistic predictions for every projected starter on the Utah Jazz that we can.
We’ll also only be predicting the stats that are most relevant to the player’s general statistical profile: simply put, you probably don’t care about Mike Conley Jr.’s rebounds per game, and neither do we.
We just hope we don’t dash your hopes too aggressively, or ruin your offseason in the process of making these predictions.
Conley Jr.’s game is predicated on IQ, craft and moderation</a>. He hasn’t spent a decade-plus crashing the paint in search of a highlight reel slam. Instead, he carefully plumbs pick-and-roll sets until he finds a situation he’s satisfied with, and frequently features in an off-ball role. Last season, the three-point shot accounted for 52.3% of Conley Jr.’s field goal attempts, and 59.4% of those attempts were assisted on.</p>
<p>That may be a recipe for longevity. In fact, it’s quite reminiscent of the play of certified Point God Chris Paul, who, <a href=https://thejnotes.com/2021/09/26/utah-jazz-predicting-stats-every-starter/"https://www.theringer.com/2021/6/28/22553294/chris-paul-phoenix-suns-western-conference-finals-age" target="_blank" rel="noopener">if you haven’t noticed, is aging very well</a>. If Conley Jr. can follow his career trajectory, the Utah Jazz will be more-than-satisfied.</p>
<p>Consider our bets officially hedged. This prediction assumes an insignificant decline in Conley Jr.’s statistical output, as he averaged 16.2 points, 6.0 assists and 1.4 steals per contest last season. We’re also banking on Quin Snyder to consider mitigating Conley Jr.’s regular season minutes and usage to some degree, to avoid another injury-related collapse heading into the postseason.</p>
<p>He’ll still have to produce at a high level if the Jazz wish to enter the playoffs with high seeding. The squad boasts one of the league’s best three-guard rotations, but both of Conley Jr.’s running mates in Donovan Mitchell and <a href=https://thejnotes.com/2021/09/26/utah-jazz-predicting-stats-every-starter/"https://thejnotes.com/2021/08/11/utah-jazz-contend-nba-1-condition/">Jordan Clarkson</a> are distinctly score-first players. Conley Jr.’s playmaking is integral to his team’s success, and his role will have to reflect as much.</p>
<div class="next-slide slider"> <a class="next-slide-btn" style="background: #00265D" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="next-slide-shortcode" href=https://thejnotes.com/2021/09/26/utah-jazz-predicting-stats-every-starter/"#"> <span class="title">Next:</span> Donovan Mitchell </a>
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his assumed trajectory points upwards</a>. By all indications, Spida has the drive, ability and passion to bring that vision into fruition.</p>
<p>However, any opportunity to push his 26.4 points per game from the 2020-21 season into the 30+ range may be difficult to come by in a Quin Snyder system that emphasizes ball-movement. Furthermore, the Utah Jazz are stacked with players who can generate their own offense. They don’t need Mitchell to produce like players in some of the league’s more heliocentric offenses do.</p>
<p>Here, we’re predicting a modest increase in Mitchell’s scoring output that is born purely out of his improvement as a player. We’re also anticipating a more significant increase in his assists per game. An improvement in that area would take Mitchell’s game to the next level: players who are a threat to both score and set-up teammates are more difficult to predict. Mitchell’s 5.2 per night were already a reasonably impressive figure from an off-guard, and he has the general offensive talent to increase that output.</p>
<p>In fact, Mitchell has the talent to exceed these predictions. He is the best offensive player on the Utah Jazz, and 30 points per game is a mark he’s likely to meet at some point in his career. However, heading into 2021-22, his Jazzmen are expected to contend for the NBA championship. His development will not be Quin Snyder’s focal point, and Mitchell’s talented cast of teammates will need room to showcase their own abilities.</p>
<p>Expect growth from Mitchell this season. Just don’t expect, or hope for it, at the expense of his Utah Jazz teammates (or their win total).</p>
<div class="next-slide slider"> <a class="next-slide-btn" style="background: #00265D" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="next-slide-shortcode" href=https://thejnotes.com/2021/09/26/utah-jazz-predicting-stats-every-starter/"#"> <span class="title">Next:</span> Royce O'Neale </a>
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a “beyond-the-stats” player</a>, it’s Royce O’Neale. His brand of hustle, energy and defense paired with consistently reliable three-point shooting may not make for a superstar, but it does allow him to be an invaluable contributor towards his team’s win total.</p>
<p>Having established that, O’Neale’s statistics have actually shown incremental growth in every season he’s been in the National Basketball Association. Over the past three seasons, he’s increased his points per game from 5.2 to 6.3 to 7.0. His rebounds per game have followed a similar pattern, increasing from 3.5 to 5.5 to 6.8.</p>
<p>We’re anticipating a similarly slight-but-notable improvement in each category from O’Neale. He’s the best defensive wing in Snyder’s rotation by a long shot, and should expect to see considerable floor time on the virtue of that fact alone. His steady three-point shooting (37.9% accuracy on 5.6 attempts per game throughout his 4-year-career) never seems to falter, and his hard-nosed approach to the game should boost his rebounds per game over the 7 threshold for the first time in his career.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, we’re counting on O’Neale’s dogged dedication to defense to finally get him a steal per game. He’s consistently come close throughout his career, as he’s averaged 0.7, 0.8 and 0.8 per game over the last few seasons. The 2021-22 season should be an opportunity for him to get over that hump as well.</p>
<p>Again, Utah Jazz fans should not be looking for Royce O’Neale to fill up the stat sheet on a nightly basis. That’s not his role, and that’s perfectly fine. Incremental improvement in the three statistical categories most relevant to him as a player would be a great outcome for his 2021-22 season.</p>
<div class="next-slide slider"> <a class="next-slide-btn" style="background: #00265D" data-track="shortcode" data-track-action="next-slide-shortcode" href=https://thejnotes.com/2021/09/26/utah-jazz-predicting-stats-every-starter/"#"> <span class="title">Next:</span> Bojan Bogdanovic </a>
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Gobert has reached his at-least-7’9 ceiling</a>. His career three-point percentage is 0% on 7 total career attempts. We don’t intend to say Gobert will never space the floor, but the smart money isn’t on him doing so.</p>
<p>It’s hard to find any avenues towards meaningful improvement in his offensive statistics. He’s never been a ball-handler: the vast majority of his responsibilities on offense come in the form of either screening for Utah’s plethora of three-point shooters, or finishing at the rim out of pick-and-roll sets.</p>
<p>All of which is perfectly fine. Gobert is highly effective in each of those roles, and again, the three Defensive Player of the Year awards on his home trophy case suggest that the bulk of his impact comes on that end of the floor. Relevantly, he hit his own personal best mark in blocks per game last season at 2.7. He could easily meet, or even exceed that figure this season, but Gobert is a wisely selective shot blocker. He’s never been one to hunt for blocks, instead preferring to obstruct layup and block attempts and collect the rebound after the shot inevitably misses.</p>
<p>Coach Quin Snyder and the rest of the Utah Jazz should be grateful for Gobert’s excellent defensive habits, but those hoping to bet on him increasing his season’s block total from last year may be sorely disappointed. Finally, Gobert has averaged 13.5 rebounds for two consecutive seasons. We’re betting on a third year in a row for the sake of fun, and you can’t stop us.</p>
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<p>Predicting stats may be a generally fruitless endeavor. There are so many unaccounted-for-variables that contribute to any player’s output. Players improve, players stagnate, and players regress. Hopefully for Utah Jazz fans, the players in their starting lineup will do substantially more of the first of those possibilities.</p><!—pageview_candidate—>">